Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 11.031052 12.364794 13.865821 15.694583 17.882096 20.440088 23.695650
2025-03-23 9.248687 10.927474 12.968021 15.678519 19.260088 23.946024 30.748220
2025-03-30 7.972234 9.723031 11.954193 15.086305 19.509882 25.773894 35.810730
2025-04-06 7.011181 8.747523 11.037554 14.387538 19.367446 26.879438 39.956754
2025-04-13 6.314843 8.025056 10.344851 13.857172 19.312483 28.014441 44.368149
2025-04-20 6.312484 8.228796 10.932224 15.231930 22.355573 34.731221 61.041892
2025-04-27 6.055746 8.040215 10.921062 15.674401 23.950429 39.344760 75.693884
2025-05-04 5.600778 7.521524 10.360378 15.155473 23.778677 40.571594 83.262466
2025-05-11 5.407760 7.371433 10.343112 15.522106 25.255284 45.468414 102.750891
2025-05-18 5.115932 7.047800 10.021096 15.321770 25.613544 48.058972 117.455840
2025-05-25 4.860859 6.761807 9.733484 15.144799 25.981848 50.771206 134.539820
2025-06-01 4.656890 6.541096 9.532957 15.099334 26.608161 54.294561 157.549879
2025-06-08 4.380502 6.199438 9.123163 14.655942 26.391804 55.817591 175.298595
2025-06-15 4.199319 6.000003 8.939721 14.625538 27.095591 60.142820 211.439555
2025-06-22 3.951332 5.676937 8.519647 14.088695 26.547667 60.697347 229.538701
2025-06-29 3.708160 5.349259 8.070836 13.453501 25.675989 60.047350 240.606092
2025-07-06 3.507636 5.082433 7.713128 12.970621 25.107037 60.232332 258.208770
2025-07-13 3.580309 5.273449 8.179572 14.220903 29.080291 77.329046 448.283875
2025-07-20 3.524563 5.242440 8.239583 14.622366 30.961132 88.204473 645.766446
2025-07-27 3.358064 5.012256 7.915203 14.151487 30.350279 88.749277 715.490893
2025-08-03 3.304362 4.975187 7.950500 14.484237 32.101570 100.563583 1072.737026
2025-08-10 3.191352 4.828402 7.767529 14.302453 32.304711 105.438431 1356.990074
2025-08-17 3.087849 4.693859 7.600335 14.141794 32.548857 110.770182 1760.459683